Understand more. Argue less.

Good morning. In the wake of more tragic shootings, the debate over guns has returned in earnest. Before we break it down, a quick disclaimer: we've written a slightly longer newsletter than usual. We believe that extra word count is necessary to digest this complex issue accurately. While we certainly don't want any more violence, illustrating the valid points on both sides is important.
 
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WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Jenna Gibson

With recent tragedies in Boulder and Atlanta, there have now been five mass shootings in 2021 (as of 3/31). These tragedies have prompted renewed cries for gun control from President Biden and the Left.

Congress hasn’t passed any comprehensive gun control legislation in almost three decades. President Clinton signed the last significant federal gun legislation in 1994, the Federal Assault Weapons Ban. The bill prohibited the manufacture, sale, and possession of certain military-grade assault weapons. The ban expired in 2004 and was never renewed. That same year, George Mason University released a report that observed a nationwide decline in gun violence into the 2000s. However, researchers “couldn’t clearly credit the [assault weapons] ban with any of the nation’s recent drops in gun violence.”

Since then, the efficacy of gun control legislation on crime and deaths has been the subject of numerous research studies. The problem is that efficacy is hard to tie to specific pieces of legislation, and studies often reach disparate conclusions. For example, a 2008 study found that local-level firearm background checks led to 27% fewer suicides and 22% fewer homicides. A more recent 2019 study analyzed 25 years of national data on 10 different types of state laws across the country. States with universal background checks for all gun sales saw homicide rates decrease by 15%, and laws prohibiting the possession of firearms by people convicted of a violent crime correlated with an 18% drop in homicides.

On the other hand, a 2016 study by Sage Journals found that in over 1,000 major U.S. cities, gun control laws generally had no impact on crime rates. There were a couple exceptions: requiring a license to possess a gun and banning alcoholics from purchasing a firearm did appear to reduce both homicide and robbery rates. In the same vein, however, a Washington Post analysis found that of the 12 largest mass shootings between 2012 and 2015, none would’ve been prevented by any current or proposed gun control laws.

What do these conflicting, and frankly confusing, conclusions mean? It’s certainly possible that gun control laws can reduce crime, but it’s challenging to eliminate confounding variables that distort this analysis. In part, this is why the gun control debate is so heated today. Nobody wants more shootings, but addressing the issue might be more complex than background checks and weapon bans.

Here’s what else you need to know.

The Facts

• Voter data. Currently, 65% of Americans believe gun laws should be more strict, compared to 75% in 2018. The partisan gap on this issue has widened significantly over the past two years: 90% of Democrats favor stricter gun laws compared to just 35% of Republicans. (Ipsos)
• Waiting in Washington. Two gun control bills passed the House and are currently waiting to be brought to the Senate. The legislation would outlaw the sale of certain high-capacity magazines and close the loophole that allows purchases at firearm conventions without a background check. (AP)
• State action. States have also taken gun legislation into their own hands, with varying results. In Virginia, Democrats have succeeded in passing a bill banning guns on the State Capitol grounds. In Iowa, Republicans are awaiting the Governor’s signature on a bill that would do away with permit requirements for gun purchases and carrying. (NPR, Des Moines Register)

NARRATIVES

BOTTOM LINE

What Does It All Mean?

This is not the first and probably won’t be the last time we have this debate. Depending on where you get your news, the gun control debate will probably sound something like this...

As you’ve just seen, research surrounding the gun control debate is conflicted, and has led to the fiercely partisan battle we’re witnessing today.

The next installment of that battle comes in the form of two gun control bills that have passed the House and are currently waiting in the Senate. While it’s unlikely that either proposal (in its current form) will garner the votes needed to pass, there might still be hope for some bipartisan cooperation. In 2013, Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) co-sponsored a bill with Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) on background checks. Last week, Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT), who previously introduced a background check bill, was optimistic about bipartisan gun control legislation in the Senate. “I think the politics have shifted dramatically,” he said. On the other side, GOP Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said that while he was opposed to the House bills, he’s “certainly open to the [gun control] discussion.” 

That bipartisan discussion hasn’t fully materialized yet. When it (hopefully) does, we’ll be back to break it down for you.

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IN OTHER NEWS

What Else We're Following

• Vaccine eligibility. Yesterday, President Joe Biden announced that he's requiring states to make all U.S. adults eligible for the coronavirus vaccine by April 19. While he was optimistic, Biden warned Americans that the nation is not yet out of the woods just yet. (AP)
• The Chauvin trial. The EMT who leads the Minneapolis Police Department's emergency medical response training told jurors in Derek Chauvin's trial that officers are trained to call for an ambulance and provide medical aid if a situation is "critical." The prosecution is arguing that the situation was, indeed, critical. (USA Today)
• Vaccine passports. The White House has ruled out introducing mandatory federal COVID-19 vaccination passports, saying citizens' privacy and rights should be protected. (BBC)

Finally, some good news

Shaggy savant. Meet the clever dog that can count to ten, answer questions and even solve addition problems—in English and Japanese. (Good News Network)

Have a week filled with growth. See you next Wednesday!