Why does it matter? ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ 

May 12, 2021

Understand more. Argue less.


Good morning. As the weather heats up around the country, economists expect job numbers to follow suit. They didn’t. Friday’s jobs report seriously underperformed expectations, and we’re here to break it down for you.


Did someone forward you this? Subscribe here

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

An Underwhelming Jobs Report

Jenna Gibson


On the first Friday of every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases a report called the Employment Situation Summary, more commonly referred to as the monthly jobs report. While it’s not exactly a page-turner, it’s one of the most highly anticipated each month (as far as reports go). Policymakers, researchers, and companies use it to gauge the health of the labor market and (at least in part), the economy at large.


The April report underperformed projections by a lot: it’s actually the biggest predictive miss in decades. Many economists predicted around 1 million non-farm jobs would be added; the real number was 266,000. The unemployment rate rose to 6.1% (from 6.0%), but that was primarily because more Americans returned to the labor force.


There are two primary areas of disagreement. First, whether the lackluster job numbers are an anomaly or an indicator of a sluggish recovery. Second, debate over what caused the low numbers. Democrats are pushing another aid package, the American Jobs Plan, and argue that sufficient wages aren’t being offered to job-seekers. On the other side, Republicans claim the slow down is a result of too much government aid that makes staying at home a more attractive alternative to working.

The Facts

  • Deja vu. Since 2003, the average change between the first report and the final revision is an increase of 11,000 jobs. The March job report bucked that trend. Originally, the BLS reported 916,000 new jobs, but that number was later decreased to 770,000 in the newest report. (Newsweek, 538)

  • Job availability. While there weren’t many jobs added this month, there are a lot of jobs available. The BLS report showed job openings are at a five-month high, and job search sites like Indeed show postings have returned to pre-pandemic levels. (NPR)

  • Search hesitancy. According to government surveys, nearly 3 million people are reluctant to look for work due to fear of catching the virus. About 2 million women have stopped looking for work since the pandemic, likely because of disruptions in schooling and child care. (AP)

NARRATIVES

How It's Being Spun

Katherine Chuang

 
Here are the narratives from both sides, along with supporting headlines and article snippets. These are not necessarily factual, but instead illustrate the coverage that solidifies each narrative. The bias ratings refer to news outlets as a whole, not a specific article.

This week, the Left's narrative will appear first on mobile. Next week, we'll switch it up.

Narrative from the Left

The jobs report is disappointing. It’s a sign that more must be done to help Americans. Biden’s jobs plan will add much-needed benefits that will motivate people to return to work. Still, without the proper support, how can we expect people to return to work when they’re afraid of the virus or still have kids doing online school?

Supporting Headlines

The jobs report was shockingly bad. Please don’t overreact.

How President Joe Biden could expand paid family leave to more Americans

Joe Biden says weak jobs report ‘makes clear’ need for more stimulus

Narrative from the Right

The jobs report is an ominous sign of what’s to come, and Biden’s policies are to blame. His COVID stimulus allows people to make more money on unemployment than actually working, which is why we have so many unfilled positions. Keeping schools closed by pandering to teacher’s unions certainly doesn’t help either.

Supporting Headlines

Biden torched over disastrous jobs report

Democrats see economic chaos as opportunity for more government spending

The latest jobs report shows Biden's economic polices are already a disaster

But, It's Not All Bias 

Sometimes, the news is civil! Here are two instances of relatively unbiased coverage by news outlets on either side.

Problems are mounting, but a majority see U.S. on the right track

A spate of recent polls, including one by Fox News, gave Biden approval numbers in the low-to-mid-50s. Taken together, these snapshots certainly don’t suggest a president who is off to a terrible start. (Fox News)

Biden’s economic agenda isn’t quite as ‘transformational’ as it seems

As bracing as the size and scope of the new President’s program is, it would return spending and tax levels that existed as young Joe Biden came of age in the mid-20th century, before the rise of conservatism bent on constraining government. (CNN)

BOTTOM LINE

What Does It All Mean?

Depending on where you get your news, you might be thinking of the latest job report like this...
  • If your news outlets lean Right, you feel that Biden has squandered an effective vaccine rollout and economy that was primed to recover quickly. While you may see some employment issues that could be fixed by the government, you don’t think another massive spending package will help at all. You feel that we need to incentivize people to get jobs, not pay them to stay at home. 
  • If your news outlets lean Left, while the job numbers aren’t ideal, you don’t see any reason to hit the panic button yet. You feel that there are still plenty of barriers preventing people from getting back into the workforce, many of which can’t be solved by a snap of Biden’s fingers. You feel that with more vaccinations and fewer business restrictions, the economy is well on its way to a better place.

Ahead of the jobs report last Friday, Biden’s approval rating stood at 63%, and his approval on the economy stood at 57%. Unsurprisingly, 91% of Democrats approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, while only 19% of Republicans felt that way. Polls conducted after the jobs report have yet to be released, but the majority of Americans do believe the country is headed in the right direction: 54% feel that the country is on the right track, the highest such figure since the first year of the Trump administration. 

President Biden campaigned on his “Build Back Better” initiative. Part one of that initiative, the recently-signed $1.9T “American Rescue Plan,” focuses on pandemic relief and child care. The labor participation rate for women has dropped to 57% (lowest since 1988), at least in part due to child care constraints. Last month, Joe Biden introduced part two, the American Jobs Plan. The $2.6T package is primarily focused on upgrading American infrastructure, investing in manufacturing and research, and expanding long-term health care services. In its current form, the plan would increase the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% (among other tax increases), which would pay for the entirety of the legislation over 15 years. 

Republicans claim that we don’t need more massive spending and higher taxes, but instead should ease off on government spending so people have a reason to get back to work. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce recently called for ending the unemployment benefit bonuses to address the labor shortage. Some Republican governors did just that, striking down extra unemployment benefits in an effort to incentivize job searchers. Montana, South Carolina, Idaho, and Iowa have implemented or proposed plans to give out that bonus once job-seekers secure employment.

Policy aside, the economic recovery has been considerable. However, the country still has roughly 8 million fewer jobs compared to the beginning of the pandemic. Even with losses in more traditional job fields, we may see new industries and careers filling these gaps as the transformative effects of the post-pandemic world settle in.

IN OTHER NEWS

What Else We're Following

  • Conflict in the Middle East. On Tuesday, Israel stepped up its attacks on the Gaza Strip, flattening a high-rise building used by the Hamas militant group as Palestinian rockets rained down almost nonstop on parts of Israel. It was the heaviest fighting between the two bitter enemies since 2014, and it’s showing no signs of slowing anytime soon. (AP)

  • Atlanta indictment. The suspect in a string of fatal shootings at Atlanta-area massage parlors was indicted Tuesday on domestic terror and murder charges, and prosecutors signaled they would also seek hate crime charges. Advocates have been pushing for terror charges since the March slayings rattled the Asian-American community. (USA Today)

  • Gasoline shortage? The ransomware attack on the Colonial Pipeline is threatening to cause gas shortages and could affect prices if it continues longer than expected. While experts caution drivers not to rush to fill up, government officials are taking steps to protect Americans from gasoline price spikes and ensure that fuel can be shipped in other ways. (USA Today)

Finally, some good news

Fighting emissions with booze. Air Company is a startup that produces premium vodka from deposited atmospheric carbon. In theory, you could drink enough to offset your carbon footprint. Just saying... (Good News Network)

Have a great rest of your week. We'll see you next Wednesday!

Edition #29 was researched, written, and edited by Nathan Wiley, Frankie Misra, Marissa Billings, and Max Tendero.

Want to Learn More?